Predicting river flow trend in kemaman river basin due to the effect of hydro-climatic extreme / Wan Zunairah Binti Othman

Faculty of Civil Engineering Technology

Thesis (Master of Science) -- Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al Sultan – 2025

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Malaysia has been affected by climate change, resulted the increasing in intensity and severity of extreme climate events. The potential of extreme climate changes has the capacity to disrupt the hydrological cycle, impacting climate variables such as rainfall, temperature, and water levels. The study aims to estimate the potential climatic extreme in year 2030-2099, considering the effect of climate change in Kemaman River Basin (KRB) by using RclimDex Analysis, to predict the changes trend of river water level effected by the climate extreme event by using river-climate statistical relationships, and to forecast the potential affected river water level to the climate extreme based on the future changes in river water level. The projection of future rainfall and temperature was developed in the range of years 2030-2099 in three different emission scenarios (SSP 1- 2.4, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 5-8.5). By utilizing RClimDex Analysis for the estimation of duration and severity of potential climatic extreme, the investigation estimated potential dry extremes and potentials wet extremes events in the KRB region. Furthermore, the prediction regarding river water level is made through statistical relationships between rivers and climate variables with the framework of water balance equation. The generation of water level regression equations (WLRE) for each river water level station with the inclusion of monthly coefficient values by using multi-linear regression method. The generation of future river water level in KRB was modelled by using WLRE. For the forecasting potential of affected river water levels are identified by projecting water level against KRB threshold. Results indicate an anticipated 20% increase in potential dry extremes under SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 emissions scenarios. WLRE for water level projections are successfully formulated, projecting a decrease in river water level dua to the rise in potential extreme dry events. The forecast for potential affected water level to the extreme climate in KRB shows that three (3) river water level stations expected to be affected to the drought events by 2100, as its projected to plotted below normal threshold. This study underscores the importance of comprehending extreme climate changes and their impact on river flow to inform mitigation strategies and ensure community safety within KRB.