Megat Muhammad Afif Megat Muainuddin creator author. text theses my 2021 monographic eng xi, 123 pages : illustrations (some color) ; 30 cm. + 1 CD-ROM Tourism forecasting can lead to an important element in tourism industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government is profitable. From economy perspective, eco-tourism is a growing business and it is an important indicator to the tourism industry. It also generates income revenue to the owner and surrounding communities. This research aims to forecast the eco-tourism demand based on number of tourist arrival for both local and foreign tourist at National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang. The forecasting models used are seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential smoothing. Both forecasting models are compared and assessed using Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The result demonstrated that the best model to forecast the number of tourist arrival in National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang is SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,0,1) 12 which is based on the smallest value of MAPE, RMSE and MSE. Hence, the exponential smoothing is not as good as the SARIMA model in forecasting tourist arrival for the data used. In future study, SARIMA model can be used to compare between the local and foreign tourist arrival for eco-tourism destination specialized Megat Muhammad Afif Megat Muainuddin Centre for Mathematical Sciences Thesis (Master of Science (Mathematics) -- Universiti Malaysia Pahang – 2021 Includes bibliographical references Centre for Mathematical Sciences Dissertations Universities and colleges Dissertations Theses THE0009193(Local) UMP 220329 20251125105953.0 eng