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020 _aTHE0009193(Local)
_qhardback
040 _aUMP
_beng
_cUMP
_erda
090 _aPSM .A354 2021 r Thesis
100 1 _aMegat Muhammad Afif Megat Muainuddin,
_eauthor.
245 1 0 _aTime arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang /
_cMegat Muhammad Afif Megat Muainuddin
264 1 _aKuantan, Pahang :
_bUMP,
_c2021
264 4 _c© 2021
300 _axi, 123 pages :
_billustrations (some color) ;
_c30 cm. +
_e1 CD-ROM
336 _atext
_2rdacontent
336 _atext
_2rdacontent
337 _aunmediated
_2rdamedia
337 _acomputer
_2rdamedia
338 _avolume
_2rdacarrier
338 _acomputer disc
_2rdacarrier
347 _atext file
_bPDF
_2rda
500 _aCentre for Mathematical Sciences
502 _aThesis (Master of Science (Mathematics) -- Universiti Malaysia Pahang – 2021
504 _aIncludes bibliographical references
520 3 _aTourism forecasting can lead to an important element in tourism industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government is profitable. From economy perspective, eco-tourism is a growing business and it is an important indicator to the tourism industry. It also generates income revenue to the owner and surrounding communities. This research aims to forecast the eco-tourism demand based on number of tourist arrival for both local and foreign tourist at National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang. The forecasting models used are seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential smoothing. Both forecasting models are compared and assessed using Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The result demonstrated that the best model to forecast the number of tourist arrival in National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang is SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,0,1) 12 which is based on the smallest value of MAPE, RMSE and MSE. Hence, the exponential smoothing is not as good as the SARIMA model in forecasting tourist arrival for the data used. In future study, SARIMA model can be used to compare between the local and foreign tourist arrival for eco-tourism destination
610 2 0 _aCentre for Mathematical Sciences
_xDissertations
650 0 _aUniversities and colleges
_xDissertations
650 0 _aTheses
942 _2lcc
_cTHESIS