Normal view MARC view ISBD view

Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang / Megat Muhammad Afif Megat Muainuddin

By:

Megat Muhammad Afif Megat Muainuddin [author.]

Material type: Text

text
text

Media type:

unmediated
computer

Carrier type:

volume
computer disc

ISBN:

THE0009193(Local)

Subject(s):

Dissertation note: Thesis (Master of Science (Mathematics) -- Universiti Malaysia Pahang – 2021 Abstract: Tourism forecasting can lead to an important element in tourism industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government is profitable. From economy perspective, eco-tourism is a growing business and it is an important indicator to the tourism industry. It also generates income revenue to the owner and surrounding communities. This research aims to forecast the eco-tourism demand based on number of tourist arrival for both local and foreign tourist at National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang. The forecasting models used are seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential smoothing. Both forecasting models are compared and assessed using Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The result demonstrated that the best model to forecast the number of tourist arrival in National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang is SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,0,1) 12 which is based on the smallest value of MAPE, RMSE and MSE. Hence, the exponential smoothing is not as good as the SARIMA model in forecasting tourist arrival for the data used. In future study, SARIMA model can be used to compare between the local and foreign tourist arrival for eco-tourism destination

Tags from this library: No tags from this library for this title. Log in to add tags.

Average rating: 0.0 (0 votes)

Holdings ( 2 )
Title notes ( 4 )

Holdings
Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Copy number	Status	Date due	Barcode
Thesis	UMPLIB GAMBANG Reference	Reference	CD12956 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	1	Not for loan		T000001574
Thesis	UMPLIB GAMBANG Reference	Reference	PSM .A354 2021 r Thesis (Browse shelf(Opens below))	1	Not for loan		T000001573

Centre for Mathematical Sciences

Thesis (Master of Science (Mathematics) -- Universiti Malaysia Pahang – 2021

Includes bibliographical references

Tourism forecasting can lead to an important element in tourism industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government is profitable. From economy perspective, eco-tourism is a growing business and it is an important indicator to the tourism industry. It also generates income revenue to the owner and surrounding communities. This research aims to forecast the eco-tourism demand based on number of tourist arrival for both local and foreign tourist at National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang. The forecasting models used are seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential smoothing. Both forecasting models are compared and assessed using Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The result demonstrated that the best model to forecast the number of tourist arrival in National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang is SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,0,1) 12 which is based on the smallest value of MAPE, RMSE and MSE. Hence, the exponential smoothing is not as good as the SARIMA model in forecasting tourist arrival for the data used. In future study, SARIMA model can be used to compare between the local and foreign tourist arrival for eco-tourism destination